Kikwete: no southern route - road through the park to go ahead! There can be no more speculation that this was simply an empty election campaign promise, or that he was waiting for offers to fund a southern route.
Speaking yesterday to the World Bank, President Kikwete said that the "road to the south would not solve transport challenges of communities living on the northern side of the park," and yes, the northern route will be built. Again he repeated, "we will not build a tarmac road" - his familiar way of spinning this to the world.
In fact, there never was a government proposal to pave the road, and the initial road surface has never been the issue:
In early November, 2009, the Tanzanian government informed the UNESCO World Heritage Committee (WHC) of its intention to build this road. According to the WHC report, the Tanzanian government stated that the "53 km stretch within the Serengeti would be a gravel and not a tarmac road." That prompted the WHC to sound the alarm and warn of dire consequences.
Last summer, the government of Tanzania began to face increasing international opposition, including conservation organizations, governments, scientists, lending institutions such as the World Bank, and tens of thousands of people around the world.
In response, Kikwete said last September - okay, you win, we won't pave the road. To the uninformed, he appeared to give in. He repeated this mantra in Davos last month, saying it was all just a big misunderstanding, it wouldn't be paved. It will only be a little road to relieve some of the traffic in the central Serengeti.
Road, commercial route, highway, bike path - whatever the name, the results will be the same. According the the Tanzanian government's own Environmental Impact Statement, there will be 800 vehicles a day by 2015, 3,000 a day by 2035! One expert close to the issue has said, "Those traffic estimates are also believed to be vastly underestimated."
Interpolating these numbers into a yearly scenario gives a sobering view. See below. To get an appreciation for the real impact, add up the cumulative traffic. By the end of 2016, there will have been over a million vehicles passed through the park.
The questions are - how long before the highway will need to be paved? How long before it will need to be fenced? At what point in this scenario will the migration collapse? At what point will the people of Tanzania realize what has been done?
Estimated daily and yearly vehicle traffic through the Serengeti National Park.
Tony Sinclair, one of the world's foremost experts on the Serengeti, has said:
The soils are largely of silt and cannot take heavy vehicle traffic. Although the road may be initially of murrum or gravel, the increasing flow of vehicles will inevitably lead to a tarmac road. This will result in road kills when as many as one million wildebeest will be settled, not just crossing, along this road...Essentially the Serengeti as we know it will no longer exist. History has shown that once we start this process of road development, there is no turning back on the sequence.
We are led to believe that this is being done to help the people. But something else is under the surface.
What about the tourism revenue and jobs that will be lost? What else might be done with a budget of $470,000,000? What number of schools, dispensaries, hospitals, training centers, wells, veterinary services, social services, and local roads could be built? Are there really altruistic motives operating here? Or will a few people and a few large enterprises ultimately benefit?
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